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The Breakdown
Greetings yet again my friends! For the third time in as
many weeks, the UFC is looking to
give us a show of epic proportions. This time at the center of the spotlight is
part III of a battle where if you
didn't know better, you could swear had some type of Hollywood
influence behind it. Of course I'm talking about Gray Maynard taking on
lightweight champ Frankie Edgar in a continuation of their arguable fight of
the year last January. But as if that match alone were not enough, we're also
being treated to champion, Jose Aldo, looking to keep his featherweight run of
dominance intact against dangerous challenger Kenny Florian. Further more,
mma's resident loud mouth Chael Sonnen will duke it out with American hero
Brian Stann, the hard hitting Melvin Guillard takes on submission wiz Joe
Lauzon, and Nam Phan looks for redemption against Leonard Garcia. .....Sorry, I
almost passed out from the awesomeness! No more time wasting, it's time to get
these showdowns broken down!
Featherweight Bout: Nam
The last time these two fought at the ultimate fighter 12
finale, the vast majority of the mma community thought that Phan had won.
Unfortunately, the judges didn’t. As Phan goes into this match, I would think
he would want to stick with what was working for him last time, a more
technical approach to the stand up, but add in more grappling exchanges to make
Garcia uncomfortable. True, Garcia has decent grappling credentials himself,
but I believe Phan can do enough to frustrate him. If he wants to win
decisively, Garcia should probably take the same route as Phan as far as
striking is concerned. Garcia has genuine talent and power to go with it, but
he has always seemed to abandon technique in favor of putting on a show full of
haymakers and flashy, but poorly executed, strikes (don’t ask me why he keeps
getting gifted these controversial decisions though…it is beyond me). This
quality will be Garcia’s downfall in this fight, as I see Phan being able to
better out strike him this time and take him down when necessary en route to a
solid decision win and some well deserved revenge.
Lightweight Bout: Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
I’m really not sure what to expect from Joe Lauzon. He’s a
good if not great lightweight with decent striking and a world class ground
game. However, he just doesn’t seem to be able to clear that hurdle that would
propel him into the elite portion of the division. He looked great against
Jeremy Stephens only to lose to Sam Stout. He pulled off a win against Gabe
Ruediger, but then got beaten handily by George Sotiropoulos. Lauzon had a
great showing against Curt Warburton, but now he’s dealing with a whole new
class of opponent in Melvin Guillard. Guillard has always been crazy talented,
but under the tutelage of Greg Jackson, everything about Guillard’s game has
been steadily tightening up including his fight IQ. He’s not making the same
wild mistakes that cost him previous matches. I believe that his blend of
knockout power, good wrestling, and his more calculated approach to fights
should be more than enough to polish off Lauzon. Look for Melvin Guillard to
get the KO early in round 2.
Middleweight Bout: Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
For all the running of the mouth that Chael Sonnen does, the
guy sure can back it up. In his championship match with Anderson Silva, he
managed to make the champ look extremely human even though he went on to lose.
I’m not so convinced that this was a fluke like many others and I believe that
Sonnen is a real threat to the middleweight title. However, before he gets a
second crack at the gold, he’ll have to best the concrete fisted American hero
in Brian Stann. Since his drop to middleweight, Stann has been nothing short of
impressive particularly in his absolute destruction of Chris Leben. The problem
I see with Stann though lies in his wrestling. Granted the contest was at light
heavyweight, but Stann was outclassed on the mat by Krysztof Soszynski. Sonnen
has demonstrated far better wrestling than Soszynski and he’s intelligent
enough to not get sucked into a fire fight against someone with heavier hands.
I predict that Stann will make Sonnen eat some shots and possibly put him in a
predicament or two, but I’m seeing this going the way of Sonnen as he wrestles
and ground and pounds his way to a unanimous decision.
Featherweight Championship Bout: Jose Aldo (c) vs. Kenny
Florian
Having watched both these guys’ most recent fights within
the last few weeks, all I can say is that Jose Aldo had better hope he has an
easier weight cut this time. For their last fights, both of these fighters had
hard cuts to get to 145. However, where Aldo looked good early and tired
steadily against Mark Hominick, Kenny Florian looked pretty darn good in taking
a decision from Aldo’s team mate, Diego Nunes. I see this fight as being far
closer than odds makers are making it out to be as Florian’s skills are easily
comparable to those of Aldo. I’d still put Aldo ahead in the striking
department, though not by leaps and bounds. As far as grappling is concerned, I
think Florian my have a slight edge even though I don’t see Aldo getting
submitted. And as previously mentioned, there is the possibility of Aldo tiring
again despite the hopes that he has corrected this issue. If that happens,
Florian can and will get the finish that Mark Hominick was gunning for in the
end of his match with Aldo. I’m going to be somewhat optimistic though and I’ll
take Jose Aldo by razor thin decision in a match that will go every which way
and back and forth.
Lightweight Championship Bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Gray
Maynard
If you haven’t seen there fight from UFC 125 yet, do
yourself a huge favor and get on that! Take it for what it’s worth, but for me
there has not yet been a better fight in 2011 so far. For 25 minutes these guys
struck, grappled, and just plane brawled only to have their masterpiece end in
a draw. Lucky for us, they get to do it again! Unfortunately, I am just having
the darnedest time trying to take a pick here though. On the one hand, we have
Gray Maynard with his size, strength, and knockout power advantages. However,
Frankie Edgar has “the Answer” (haha, see what I did there?) with speed,
technique, and the heart of bear. Maynard learned last time just how much Edgar
can take and still keep coming, so I don’t think he’ll make the mistake of
almost punching himself out again like he did in the first round of he and
Edgar’s previous encounter. For his part, Edgar now knows just how much power
Maynard is packing will probably look to do a lot more sticking and moving. I’m
of the mindset that this fight is going to come down to one thing…who wants it
more? After watching Edgar almost literally go through hell and back to hang on
to his belt I just feel as though I can’t pick against him in good conscience.
I’m saying that this will be another war (I hate using that term, but this time
it fits) where Edgar very slowly, but very surely finds ways to run away with
the fight and retain the title.
Well my pals of pugilism, that is how I see these fights
playing out. As always, feel free to just rub it in if I’m wrong (you know full
well that I’d do the same after all!). Enjoy what looks to be a spectacular
card and until next time, keep those hands up!
-The Blue Eyed Ronin
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